🔮 Our Frontera 2026 Predictions

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🎢 What We Believe Will Happen in 2026

“Didn’t you just do predictions last week?”

Wait, no no no.

Hear me out.

What we shared last week were our five-year predictions, pulled directly from our Fintech 3.0: The Great Platform Shift in Mexico report. Those were long-range theses about where financial infrastructure is heading.

This time it's different.

Since some of you guys asked, we’re going straight into our 2026 ones. These are near-term, concrete calls on the trends we believe will shape this year, and, more importantly, the ones we’ll be spending our time and energy covering as they unfold.

So yeah, these are the ones you don’t want to miss. Let's go.

Haven’t Downloaded Our Fintech 3.0 Report Yet?

A 58-page deep dive into how finance is being rebuilt on new rails, and why we’re at the beginning of a major technological platform shift that will reshape how financial products are built and scaled in Mexico. Download your copy here now.

🛣️ The Year Ahead

Now is a good time, great even, to remind you to watch this week's episode where Ab, Cush, and Simon talk about the predictions in detail. But I'll do my best to lay them out here:

1. At least three major LatAm crypto startups will be acquired by global incumbents in 2026.

In 2026, at least three Latin America–born crypto or stablecoin startups will be acquired by global fintech or crypto companies such as Coinbase, Nubank, Stripe, Nexo, or Robinhood.

This prediction is driven by both technological infrastructure demand and a structural shift in how companies exit. Globally, startups are increasingly exiting through acquisitions rather than IPOs, and both paths are happening much faster than in previous cycles. Before 2016, it often took eight years or more for a company to exit. Today, the average is closer to four years, meaning acquirers are competing for a limited pool of high-quality assets.

Latin America sits at the center of this trend. Stablecoins are most relevant in emerging markets, where currency instability, payment friction, and cross-border needs are acute. As a result, crypto-native companies in LatAm, Africa, and Asia have reached meaningful scale faster than expected. Startups with 200K to 1M users, especially those operating stablecoin wallets, payment rails, or onchain FX infrastructure, are now strategically attractive acquisition targets.

For global platforms acquiring regional distribution is often cheaper and faster than building it internally. While acquisition multiples in LatAm will remain lower than in the U.S. due to unit economics, the strategic value (local regulation, user trust, and real usage) more than compensates. This dynamic sets up 2026 as a year of accelerated consolidation, with Latin America as one of the most active regions.

2. Five or more leading LatAm fintechs will launch dollarized accounts via stablecoin rails.

Five or more top fintech companies across Latin America and other emerging markets will launch dollar-denominated accounts powered by stablecoins, using a “fintech mullet” approach through infrastructure partnerships.

Right now, most fintechs simply don’t offer access to dollars. Not because they don’t want to, but because they simply couldn't before. Stablecoins change that. They let fintechs plug into dollar rails without becoming banks, without touching U.S. correspondent infrastructure, and without rebuilding their entire stack. The American Dream.

Just like that, the fintech mullet model takes over. For a regular user, the front looks like a normal fintech app they already trust. While the back runs on crypto rails that move dollars instantly and globally. Instead of spending years on licenses and integrations, companies will ship these products through infrastructure partners like Bando and get to market fast.

In the episode Simon actually highlighted five is low. From what he’s seeing globally, fintechs are adopting stablecoins faster than any previous infrastructure shift. Users want dollars, and fintechs that offer them will win. As simple as that.

3. Nubank will announce its own blockchain (or a deep partnership with one)

At some point in 2026, Nubank will either announce its own blockchain or formalize a deep partnership with an existing chain, probably Tempo. We don’t have any insider info. We don’t know when. We just think it happens.

The logic is simple. Nubank is watching what Coinbase, Stripe, and Robinhood are doing with their own chain. It’s watching how control over execution, settlement, and product velocity compounds when the rails are owned. Everything is better, and faster, when you own the stack. 

It just makes sense, so much so that we wrote an article on this a few months ago. Check it out here.

4. 30% of the U.S.–Mexico remittance corridor will run on stablecoins

Stablecoins will process at least 30% of the $64.7B remittance corridor between the U.S. and Mexico.

This is actually a very data driven guess since adoption is already compounding. Stablecoins represented roughly 10% of the corridor in 2024, and we estimate them to have been at around 17% in 2025. At current growth rates, reaching 30% in 2026 is a natural continuation, and not aggressive at all.

Volume will concentrate around platforms that already operate at scale. Félix Pago continues to expand rapidly, while Bitso Business has become core settlement infrastructure for stablecoin-based remittances (among other products), offering lower costs, faster settlement, and higher reliability than traditional rails. As usage compounds, stablecoins move from a complementary rail to a dominant one.

Interlude

Let's do rapid fire predictions with the rest, why not.

5. At least 3 Latin American countries, including Mexico, will begin introducing formal stablecoin regulation.

The U.S. will actively push stablecoin regulation through trade and financial negotiations as a way to export the dollar digitally. For emerging markets, adopting regulated dollar rails will be positioned as alignment, making formal stablecoin frameworks a strategic necessity.

6. The global stablecoin market cap will surpass $600B.

We went from $200B to $300B in 2025, 50%. I see this trend compounding over the next few years, and don't see it lower than a 2x.

7. The non-USD stablecoin market cap will grow from $1.5B to $10B.

If you know me, you know I'm bullish on local stablecoins. I've already written three pieces on them, check them out if you'd like to know why:

1. The Stablecoin Sandwich

2. The Local Stablecoin Thesis

3. Why Latin America Needs Local Stablecoins

8. More than 80% of altcoins will fail to reclaim their 2025 highs at any point in 2026.

Liquidity will continue to concentrate around assets with real cash flows, users, or infrastructure relevance. Narrative-driven tokens and recycled VC launches will struggle to attract sustained demand in a more selective market. This does not mean I'm wishing a bear market upon us, bad tokens will just, perform badly.

9. At least 10 major banks or large fintechs will launch their own stablecoins.

Last year we saw dozens of headlines of banks and fintechs wanting to launch their own stablecoin, this year it will come true.